11/19/2025 CSIS Online Events, video available.
Part 1: Dialogue between Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT).
Part 2: Panel featuring Joseph Majkut (Moderator), Maria Snegovaya, Matt Sagers, and Dhruva Jaishankar.
*All quotations are paraphrased. I write down quotes to the best of my ability, but it may not be word-for-word accurate. Paraphrased quotes are in “”, while ‘’ are my own snarky air quotes. This is not a fact-checked overview of the event, merely a summary of what was said + my own thoughts.
I’m getting ready to post this summary while watching the news roll in about Trump’s 28-point proposal that would cede land to Russia, halve the Ukrainian army, and block Ukraine from joining NATO. To me, this looks like Russia’s plan. The following summary was written based on notes I took during the event, before the ‘peace plan’ was announced, and before I began my descent into madness.
The first part of the event was a lot of political groveling and wheedling; I’m not going to lie. Richard Blumenthal was trying to show that support for Ukraine should economically entice Republicans. Lindsey Graham was trying to spin all the current Trump scandals into wins for Ukraine. Overall however, they were both more civil and pro-cooperation than I expected either of them to be. Both were quite general, so if you’ve read into Ukraine, there wasn’t much new information here. Nevertheless, here are some things they brought up:
- Blumenthal and Graham have traveled to Ukraine multiple times.
- Blumenthal was insistent: The American people support Ukraine. The US should support Ukraine (as well as Poland, which Russia has begun to probe) to the fullest extent, because appeasement never works. Blumenthal also mentioned that he would love to see Ukraine join NATO.
- US bill to declare Russia state sponsored terrorism for kidnapping Ukrainian children
- Ukrainian critical minerals and the earlier Trump minerals deal to ‘place an economic interest in Ukraine’ which would double as a security guarantee.
- Graham talked of the Saudi Prince’s visit to the White House, saying that coordination with Mohammed bin Salman [MbS] would help the US put pressure on Russia through the Saudis/OPEC members. He also talked briefly about MbS’ goals when it came to Israel-Palestine.
- America should “export American gas to places where it will hurt the bad guys”. For example sending hydrocarbons to Europe to replace Russian pipeline gas.
- Graham acknowledged Climate Change, did not call for more renewables, instead called for a “lower carbon economy” eg, gas replacing coal.
- Blumenthal asserts that the EU is taking Russia seriously.
Now into the panel discussion, which I’m breaking up by speaker:
Maria Snegovaya:
“Now is the moment to hit”: everything about the Russia is decaying. Sanctions are working. Russia is in a stagflation cycle. However, the Russian macroeconomic team is very good at their jobs, and the war is unfortunately very cheap for Russia (in terms of materials). Regarding oil revenues, the planners have reducing state revenue from oil and gas, from 50% before the war to 25-30% currently. Oil and gas may be bigger for the economy as a whole, but the government is trying to wean itself off it. Russia is also able to evade sanctions using its shadow fleet, and going after those ships might constitute an act of war.
China also poses a major issue. Russia is extremely dependent on them. 76% of battlefield imports, and 90% of restricted technology makes its way to Russia via China and Hong Kong. We see greater security alignment between Moscow and Beijing, but we also know that China is wary of tighter economic relations with Russia. China has continued to diversify rather than rely on Russian oil, the Power of Siberia 2 is not noticeably progressing, and they are more responsive to sanctions.
The war has also reordered stakeholders in the Russian economy. Western assets of powerful people were seized, while others have profited immensely from Russia’s military economy. Furthermore, local companies have flourished without competition from Western companies.
Matt Sagers:
“The Russian economy is like Teflon – everything bounces off”. Unlike Snegovaya, he sees the impact of sanctions as minimal. To him, the most important area to hit is the oil refineries. Russia only has about 30 oil refineries, 10 of which are the most critical. If Ukraine continues to hit these, that would be enormous leverage. Furthermore, these oil refineries use western technology, making them difficult to fix or replace.
Russia also has an issue with limited storage for its oil and gas once it’s out of the ground. Russian oil shipments have also been backed up at sea, unable to find ports that will take them. Sagers believes the only way out for Russia will be to cut production, which may go against OPEC policy.
“Where there’s a will, there’s a way”. Sanctions cause a temporary hold on oil imports, but after a couple months, there is a rebound, as companies find workarounds. As moderator Majkut added, it’s difficult to fight the free market.
Dhruva Jaishankar:
Mainly discussed India’s role in the conflict. Prior to the war, India imported less than 3% of its oil from Russia. At the time, it was very inconvenient and there are no pipelines connecting Russia and India. Before, India was purchasing mainly from the Middle East, but after 2022, Europe bought up Middle Eastern oil at higher prices, causing India to turn to Russia for cheaper oil.
The US’ recent set of tariffs and sanctions that target Russia’s Lukoil and Rosneft have caused a drop in Indian imports from those companies. In addition to the current 25% tariff rate, India faces an extra 25% if it continues to import Russian oil.
Jaishankar also mentioned that we should pay attention to Putin’s upcoming visit to India.
He put forth several interlocking problems:
- If the US’ legislation to hurt Russia is worded impossibly/unrealistically, people won’t believe in it or adhere.
- Global South countries are much more price sensitive than developed economies. In order to move away from Russian oil, there needs to be a cheaper alternative.
- What will the ripple effects be? The US has been swiping economically at Russia, but their blows are hitting more than just Russia. Be wary of unintended consequences which could come back like a boomerang to smack the US in the face.
Final prompt to all panelists: What are you watching and think policymakers need to seize on?
- How quickly will Russia’s oil profits bounce back after this latest round of sanctions?
- The Russian macroeconomic team has been hiding economic data, indicating Russian decline.
- Watch for successful Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries.
- Long-term consequences of the energy transition (away from the carbonized economy)
- Watch for the unintended consequences of the administration’s new strategy to limit Russia.
Put a Pin in It:
- Clay Seigle asked Matt Sagers a question about oil logistics. I didn’t understand it, but would love to. Check the video at around [01:01:35] to catch his question and Matt’s answer.