{"id":25,"date":"2025-12-18T18:52:17","date_gmt":"2025-12-18T18:52:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mouthwash.blog\/?p=25"},"modified":"2026-03-08T03:45:15","modified_gmt":"2026-03-08T03:45:15","slug":"energy-leverage-in-the-russia-ukraine-war-csis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mouthwash.blog\/?p=25","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;Energy Leverage in the Russia-Ukraine War&#8221; (CSIS)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>11\/19\/2025 CSIS Online Events, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.csis.org\/events\/energy-leverage-russia-ukraine-war\">video available.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Part 1: Dialogue between <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Lindsey_Graham\">Lindsey Graham (R-SC)<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Richard_Blumenthal\">Richard Blumenthal (D-CT)<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Part 2: Panel featuring <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/joseph-majkut-6834854b\">Joseph Majkut<\/a> (Moderator), <a href=\"https:\/\/mariasnegovaya.com\/\">Maria Snegovaya<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/en\/research-insights\/experts\/sagers-matthew-j\">Matt Sagers<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/dhruvajaishankar\/\">Dhruva Jaishankar<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><em>*All quotations are paraphrased.&nbsp; I write down quotes to the best of my ability, but it may not be word-for-word accurate.&nbsp; Paraphrased quotes are in \u201c\u201d, while \u2018\u2019 are my own snarky air quotes.&nbsp; This is not a fact-checked overview of the event, merely a summary of what was said + my own thoughts.<\/em><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m getting ready to post this summary while watching the news roll in about <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/11\/19\/world\/europe\/us-russia-ukraine-peace-plan.html\">Trump\u2019s 28-point proposal<\/a> that would cede land to Russia, halve the Ukrainian army, and block Ukraine from joining NATO.&nbsp; To me, this looks like Russia\u2019s plan.&nbsp; The following summary was written based on notes I took during the event, before the \u2018peace plan\u2019 was announced, and before I began my descent into madness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The first part of the event was a lot of political groveling and wheedling; I\u2019m not going to lie.&nbsp; Richard Blumenthal was trying to show that support for Ukraine should economically entice Republicans.&nbsp; Lindsey Graham was trying to spin all the current Trump scandals into wins for Ukraine.&nbsp; Overall however, they were both more civil and pro-cooperation than I expected either of them to be.&nbsp; Both were quite general, so if you\u2019ve read into Ukraine, there wasn\u2019t much new information here.&nbsp; Nevertheless, here are some things they brought up:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Blumenthal and Graham have traveled to Ukraine multiple times.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Blumenthal was insistent: The American people support Ukraine.&nbsp; The US should support Ukraine (as well as Poland, which Russia has begun to probe) to the fullest extent, because <strong>appeasement never works<\/strong>.&nbsp; Blumenthal also mentioned that he would love to see Ukraine join NATO.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>US bill to declare Russia state sponsored terrorism for kidnapping Ukrainian children<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ukrainian critical minerals and the earlier Trump minerals deal to \u2018place an economic interest in Ukraine\u2019 which would double as a security guarantee.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Graham talked of the Saudi Prince\u2019s visit to the White House, saying that coordination with Mohammed bin Salman [MbS] would help the US put pressure on Russia through the Saudis\/OPEC members.&nbsp; He also talked briefly about MbS\u2019 goals when it came to Israel-Palestine.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>America should \u201cexport American gas to places where it will hurt the bad guys\u201d.&nbsp; For example sending hydrocarbons to Europe to replace Russian pipeline gas.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Graham acknowledged Climate Change, did not call for more renewables, instead called for a \u201c<em>lower<\/em> carbon economy\u201d eg, gas replacing coal.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Blumenthal asserts that the EU is taking Russia seriously.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Now into the panel discussion, which I\u2019m breaking up by speaker:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><em>Maria Snegovaya:<\/em><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cNow is the moment to hit\u201d: everything about the Russia is decaying.&nbsp; Sanctions are working.&nbsp; Russia is in a stagflation cycle. However, the Russian macroeconomic team is very good at their jobs, and the war is unfortunately very cheap for Russia (in terms of materials).&nbsp; Regarding oil revenues, the planners have reducing state revenue from oil and gas, from 50% before the war to 25-30% currently.&nbsp; Oil and gas may be bigger for the economy as a whole, but the government is trying to wean itself off it.&nbsp; Russia is also able to evade sanctions using its shadow fleet, and going after those ships <em>might<\/em> constitute an act of war.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China also poses a major issue.&nbsp; Russia is extremely dependent on them.&nbsp; 76% of battlefield imports, and 90% of restricted technology makes its way to Russia via China and Hong Kong.&nbsp; We see greater security alignment between Moscow and Beijing, but we also know that China is wary of tighter economic relations with Russia.&nbsp; China has continued to diversify rather than rely on Russian oil, the Power of Siberia 2 is not noticeably progressing, and they are more responsive to sanctions.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The war has also reordered stakeholders in the Russian economy.&nbsp; Western assets of powerful people were seized, while others have profited immensely from Russia\u2019s military economy.&nbsp; Furthermore, local companies have flourished without competition from Western companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><em>Matt Sagers:<\/em><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe Russian economy is like <em>Teflon<\/em> \u2013 everything bounces off\u201d.&nbsp; Unlike Snegovaya, he sees the impact of sanctions as minimal.&nbsp; To him, the most important area to hit is the oil refineries.&nbsp; Russia only has about 30 oil refineries, 10 of which are the most critical.&nbsp; If Ukraine continues to hit these, that would be enormous leverage.&nbsp; Furthermore, these oil refineries use western technology, making them difficult to fix or replace.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia also has an issue with limited storage for its oil and gas once it\u2019s out of the ground.&nbsp; Russian oil shipments have also been backed up at sea, unable to find ports that will take them.&nbsp; Sagers believes the only way out for Russia will be to cut production, which may go against OPEC policy.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWhere there\u2019s a will, there\u2019s a way\u201d. Sanctions cause a temporary hold on oil imports, but after a couple months, there is a rebound, as companies find workarounds.&nbsp; As moderator Majkut added, it\u2019s difficult to fight the free market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><em>Dhruva Jaishankar:&nbsp;<\/em><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Mainly discussed India\u2019s role in the conflict.&nbsp; Prior to the war, India imported less than 3% of its oil from Russia. At the time, it was very inconvenient and there are no pipelines connecting Russia and India.&nbsp; Before, India was purchasing mainly from the Middle East, but after 2022, Europe bought up Middle Eastern oil at higher prices, causing India to turn to Russia for cheaper oil.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The US\u2019 recent set of tariffs and sanctions that target Russia\u2019s Lukoil and Rosneft have caused a drop in Indian imports from those companies.&nbsp; In addition to the current 25% tariff rate, India faces an extra 25% if it continues to import Russian oil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jaishankar also mentioned that we should pay attention to Putin\u2019s upcoming visit to India.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He put forth several interlocking problems:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>If the US\u2019 legislation to hurt Russia is worded impossibly\/unrealistically, people won\u2019t believe in it or adhere.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Global South countries are much more price sensitive than developed economies.&nbsp; In order to move away from Russian oil, there needs to be a cheaper alternative.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>What will the ripple effects be?&nbsp; The US has been swiping economically at Russia, but their blows are hitting more than just Russia.&nbsp; Be wary of unintended consequences which could come back like a boomerang to smack the US in the face.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Final prompt to all panelists: What are you watching and think policymakers need to seize on?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>How quickly will Russia\u2019s oil profits bounce back after this latest round of sanctions?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Russian macroeconomic team has been hiding economic data, indicating Russian decline.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Watch for successful Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Long-term consequences of the energy transition (away from the carbonized economy)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Watch for the unintended consequences of the administration\u2019s new strategy to limit Russia.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Put a Pin in It:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.csis.org\/people\/clayton-seigle\">Clay Seigle<\/a> asked Matt Sagers a question about oil logistics.&nbsp; I didn\u2019t understand it, but would love to.&nbsp; Check the video at around [01:01:35] to catch his question and Matt\u2019s answer.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>11\/19\/2025 CSIS Online Events, video available. Part 1: Dialogue between Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT). Part 2: Panel featuring Joseph Majkut (Moderator), Maria Snegovaya, Matt Sagers, and Dhruva Jaishankar. *All quotations are paraphrased.&nbsp; I write down quotes to the best of my ability, but it may not be word-for-word accurate.&nbsp; Paraphrased quotes are [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-history"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mouthwash.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mouthwash.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mouthwash.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mouthwash.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mouthwash.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=25"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/mouthwash.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":63,"href":"https:\/\/mouthwash.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25\/revisions\/63"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mouthwash.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=25"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mouthwash.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=25"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mouthwash.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=25"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}